Historic data revised
According to the National Association of Realtors, the housing market for the past four years has been weaker than originally reported, with the trade association overstating sales by more than three million homes during and after the economic crash.
As part of the trade association’s benchmark revision reporting, new data has allowed a more accurate depiction of the housing market, with home sales data being revised downward by 14.6 percent for 2010 while for the total period of 2007 to 2010, resale home sales were revised downward by 14.3 percent.
Why is there a revision at all?
The NAR reports the lower figures are due to changes in how the Census Bureau collects data, population shifts, an over-reporting of the number of FSBO sales that were not counted through MLS s as well as double reporting for homes that were counted as sold on more than one MLS.
NAR said consumer survey data show FSBOs accounted for 9 percent of sales in 2010, down from 16 percent in 2000.
"In addition to a decline in FSBO transactions, more builders began marketing new properties through real estate brokers (and those sales) weren’t completely filtered from the existing-home data," NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.
"Some property listings on more than one MLS, and issues related to house flipping, also contributed to the downward revisions. A home listed for sale in Williamsburg VA might be found in four different MLS lists. So when it sells NAR might count it as four sales not one.
In our part of the state there are four MLS databases, REIN, WAAR/ WMLS, CBRAR, and CVRMLS. REIN covers the Southside , peninsula, Gloucester , Yorktown and parts of James City County Williamsburg. WAAR/ WMLS primarily covers the Williamsburg area but overlaps areas in Yorktown, Gloucester and New Kent. CBRAR (Chesapeake Bay & Rivers Association of REALTORS®) covers the areas of Gloucester, Mathews, Middlesex, Portions of King & Queen County and King William County and the Town of West Point.
CVRMLS/ Richmond Assoc of Realtors primarily covers the areas of City of Richmond, Henrico County, Goochland County, Hanover County, Louisa County, King William County, Caroline County, New Kent County, King & Queen County, Charles City County, Chesterfield County, Colonial Heights, Hopewell, Petersburg, Prince George County, Amelia County and Dinwiddie County
Although the rebenchmarking resulted in lower adjustments to several years of home sales data, the month-to-month characterization of market conditions did not change. There are no changes to home prices or month’s supply.
“From a consumer’s perspective, only the local market information matters and there are no changes to local multiple listing service (MLS) data or local supply-and-demand balance, or to local home prices,”
Here are the important points to remember:
- The revised numbers do not affect local figures. These are national only, and local sales figures are unchanged. If our Williamsburg VA MLS said 417 homes were sold in March 2009, then 417 homes were sold in March 2009, period.
- The revisions are of the number of sales, not prices.
- While the numbers are going to be revised down, the changes will be the same — so, for example, a 12% year-to-year increase with the old numbers will still be a 12% increase with the new ones.
If you want a more detailed explanation you can find it here